Peak Oil, and being in denial

May 27, 2008

The Power of Community: How Cuba survived Peak Oil is a documentary directed by Faith Morgan. The film is an exponent of the Peak Oil movement, a group of people worldwide that study the present and future effects of the end of the age of oil.

The end of the age of oil is not reported on in the mass media that much, since CO2 emission is considered to be the real threat to the planet and that is a convenient distraction from the real issue. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died when Washington launched another phase in the war for oil, which is a direct result of Peak Oil.

It is irresponsible of the media to ignore this, but not illogical when you consider who owns the media. It is not in the interests of Big Oil, Big Media and Big Money to stop trying to hide the fact that oil (and gas) is the one major factor in the acts of aggression against Iraq (in particular) and Afghanistan (pipelines, among other motives).

This documentary however is independent. A comment on this film on the Internet Movie Database website (imdb.com) was the following.

http://www.imdb.com/user/ur16301211/comments

The struggle of ordinary Cuban folks to overcome their difficulties in the midst of all kinds of scarcity and restrictions can definitely be called heroic, but it is a forced heroism, not a voluntary one. Whether you believe their political and economic oppression comes as a result of the U.S. embargo or from a half-century of boneheaded mismanagement from the same autocratic rule, either way this film could still be useful, if only it could tell us which lessons they learned are applicable here, and possibly, whether the film genuinely represents the truth of what’s going on there.

This is a comment by someone, apparently, right from the developed, industrial world which consumes oil on a large scale. Of course one reason for poverty in Cuba is the US embargo, there is no question about that. I have not studied the socialist "boneheaded mismanagement", so I cannot judge if (but think it is unlikely) that was even more instrumental than the simple collapse of their one major trading partner.
I do doubt that there are many heroic acts that are not "forced", so this is a kind of gratuitous addition. Overcoming economic hardship and coming out of it in a way that preserves quality of life, is what’s relevant here. Not if the struggle that comes with it is forced upon you or not.

With regard to the question of authenticity of the situation portrayed, there is no debate on whether Cuba was struck hard by Peak Oil. The documentary gets a bit hippie-esque at times, with all the people idyllically growing their own food, but that may be partly our perception, since we just cannot imagine having to grow our own carrots and potatoes in city gardens, and in the way they do it in the film (no monoculture because of the risk of plant disease etc.).

Cuba was struck hard by Peak Oil, and not because it was a "third world country", which arguably it was. Cuba was, for obvious political and historic reasons, a favoured trade partner of the Soviet Union. The GDP was lower than most Western European countries but people drove cars, perhaps not new cars, they had houses, fridges, fans, and good health care. Although its GDP declined sharply in the nineties after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is still higher than that of India, the Philippines, Pakistan, whatever these figures may actually mean in practice (in the sense of actual purchasing power, for example).

Well, now it’s time to burst the Utopian bubble: it’s just not likely that we are going to see those big rig diesel trucks pulling trailers full of people sweating without air conditioning in any major city here, or that people are going to happily wait hours each way to get to work on one of those air-quality-damaging particulate-smoke-billowing vehicles. Let’s face it, people just aren’t going to magically give up their cars and accept that "lesson" unless they’re forced to.

This friendly reviewer is thinking the makers of the documentary except the western audience to suddenly adopt the new Cuban lifestyle, grow their own crops, ride bicycles, etc. Of course change is not likely, as long as there is no direct inescapable reason for it. Our oil-dependent economy runs smoothly on it, unsustainable as it is, but this is simply a finite thing. The very point of the documentary is that Cubans were forced to change their lifestyle, learn to ride a bike, take a busted old bus. The reviewers’s reaction is typical of the generally human inability to imagine giving up what is perceived as essential facets of one’s lifestyle. Of course, I could not imagine either things like not having a central heating system in my house, no internet, no gas stove or worst of all, no electricity. But when that calamitous day comes, you’ll either get used to it or get used to it.

They would sooner trade their SUV for a plug-in hybrid mini someday than to go through scarcities, lines and rationing.

Another comment from the point of view of comfortable purchasing power. Of course Cubans would do the same thing if they could. The trouble with the end of the age of oil, however, is not just that gasoline is getting more expensive, but that energy in general is getting more expensive. A "plug-in hybrid mini" will obviously be more efficient than an 8 km/litre gasoline gulping 3 litre engine beast, which is hardly uncommon. But electricity is often produced by means of oil (even disregarding the overall effect of oil scarcity on all energy prices, including nuclear energy, which is finite too, and other energy), efficient cars will have to be produced, requiring lots of energy and resources, and simply switching to a Toyota Prius or hybrid Honda Civid. Sure, call the dealer when all the other million people in the region you live will want one.

Our reviewer is just one example of the complete absence of any realisation what the threats to our entire lifestyle are, when this planet’s easy oil is used up. It might take a decade, or two decades, or five decades, but the fact we don’t know the exact when does not mean it is not inescapable.

 

Also, it’s just not possible that any widely distributed movie in 60 minutes is going to be able to accurately portray the truth about how deeply Cuba was transformed during the last 50 years, and how facts must be chewed and softened internally in order to keep people from fleeing in massive waves. Evidently, we must help prevent such things from occurring by perpetuating the Utopian myth, reshaped for the new century. Thus, it is an attractive fiction more than a documentary of how things are and how they should be.

It is certainly true that a short documentary is unable to give an impression of all things Cuban, but what documentary can do that? This is not an "attractive fiction", because the situation itself is not fictional at all. The real problem is that the more used you are to material wealth and all kinds of luxuries (cars, air-conditioners, big freezers and fridges, computers, gas or electric heaters, ovens, microwaves, television sets, plasma screens, movie projectors, all of those things that so many of us in the industrialised world have plenty of and that require lots of energy to use), the harder it is going to be to adapt.

That is not what I would call an attractive fiction, it is rather a disconcerting, inevitable scenario.

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